Workday stock will be in the spotlight on Thursday as the blue-chip software company publishes its financial results, which will provide the management an opportunity to comment on the acquisition rumors. WDAY was trading at $194 on Wednesday, down modestly from the year-to-date high of $227.

Workday earnings to provide color on its growth

Workday is a top software company providing firms with solutions in the human resource, finance and accounting, legal, and planning industries. It is used by thousands of companies, including the top ones in the Fortune 500.

The company’s business has experienced strong revenue growth in the past few years, driven by the rising demand for its services from enterprise customers. Its annual revenue jumped from $5.13 billion in 2022 to over $9.5 billion last year. 

Recently, however, the stock has tumbled in the past amid concerns that AI tools will disrupt its business. These fears rose after IBM published its financial results, which showed that clients were focusing on hardware.

Workday will now have a chance to demonstrate that its business is growing when it releases its financial results on Thursday. Yahoo Finance data shows that the revenue is expected to jump by 12.2% to $2.64 billion, with earnings per share rising from $2.21 to $2.61. Workday has a long record of beating analysts estimates, meaning that the trend may continue

The most recent results showed that Workday’s revenue jumped by 13.5% in the first quarter to $2.54 billion, with its operating income rising by 13.3% to $338 million. In his statement, the CEO said:

“We are reiterating our fiscal 2027 subscription revenue outlook of $9.925 billion to $9.950 billion, while increasing our fiscal 2027 non-GAAP operating margin guidance to 30.5%. Our focus remains on executing on our agentic AI roadmap while driving operational efficiencies as we scale.”

The upcoming earnings report may give the company more insights into the recent acquisition rumor.Reuters reported that Silver Lake was considering an acquisition. If this happens, it would be one of the biggest acquisitions in the software industry since the company has a market capitalization of over $48 billion. 

Workday’s valuation is relatively friendly as it trades with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18. Its foreward PEG ratio is 0.85, which is lower than the technology sector median of 1.22.

Workday stock price technical analysis

WDAY stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the WDAY stock bottomed at $110, its lowest level in April and June this year. It moved above the important resistance level of $158.27, its highest level on June 1 this year. 

The stock has formed a golden cross pattern, which is a common bullish reversal sign in technical analysis. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the stock will continue rising, potentially to the year-to-date high of $228. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to $250.

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US consumer prices rose slightly in July, with the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showing that price pressures remain elevated as policymakers weigh the next move on interest rates.

The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, while the annual inflation rate reached 3.7%, according to the Commerce Department.

Both readings were 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus.

The data suggest that inflation has not continued its recent moderation at the pace policymakers would like, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s debate over whether interest rates should remain restrictive or be raised further.

The PCE index measures prices paid by US consumers for a broad range of goods and services.

It also accounts for changes in consumer spending patterns, making it the Fed’s preferred gauge for assessing inflation.

However, the more closely watched core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, provided a less concerning picture.

Core PCE rose 0.2% in July and 3.3% from a year earlier, matching economists’ expectations.

The core measure is generally considered a better indicator of underlying and longer-term inflation trends.

Services continue to drive prices

Goods prices actually declined 0.1% during July, helped by a 2.7% drop in gasoline and other energy-related goods.

Prices for furnishings and long-lasting household equipment fell 0.9%.

Services, however, continued to put upward pressure on inflation.

Prices for services rose 0.3%, including a 1.2% increase in financial services and insurance and a 0.3% rise in housing costs.

The report also showed that personal income increased by 0.4%, while consumer spending rose by 0.2%.

Both measures were stronger than expected, suggesting that household finances and demand remain relatively resilient despite elevated prices.

A separate government report showed that US gross domestic product grew at an annualized 1.5% pace in the second quarter, in line with expectations.

September rate hike bets fall

Financial markets have recently reduced expectations for a September rate increase.

The probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike in September has fallen to 36% from around 67% earlier this month, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Investors still expect interest rates to be higher by the end of the year, but the latest inflation data are unlikely to provide a clear signal for the Fed’s next meeting.

The 3.7% headline PCE reading remains significantly above the central bank’s 2% inflation target.

However, the core PCE reading came in exactly as expected, making the 3.3% annual and 0.2% monthly readings the key figures for policymakers.

The recent slowdown in inflation has strengthened the case among Federal Open Market Committee members who voted to leave rates unchanged in July at 3.50% to 3.75%, where they have remained since December.

At the same time, inflation has remained above the Fed’s target since February 2021.

A growing minority of officials believe additional restraint could be required to ensure inflation returns sustainably to 2%.

The FOMC will next meet on Sept. 15-16.

Markets currently see only about a one-in-three probability of a move at that meeting, with December viewed as the more likely window for a potential rate increase.

Treasury yields remain elevated

The inflation data also come as government bond yields have climbed sharply.

Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities recently reached their highest levels since 2007.

Investors have expressed concerns about the Fed’s ability to bring inflation back to target, while growing US debt and budget deficits have also contributed to upward pressure on long-term yields.

Stock futures pulled back slightly after the inflation report, while Treasury yields moved higher.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently announced plans for the department to increase its buybacks of government debt.

However, market participants have questioned whether the initiative will have a meaningful impact on Treasury yields.

Fed officials are also gathering this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the central bank’s annual symposium.

The event will be closely watched for clues about the direction of monetary policy, with Chairman Kevin Warsh scheduled to deliver a policy speech on Friday.

Since taking office in May, Warsh has remained cautious about signaling his preferred path for interest rates, instead allowing incoming economic data and financial markets to shape expectations.

For now, the July inflation report leaves the Fed facing a difficult balance: core inflation is behaving broadly as expected, but headline inflation remains well above target, and the pace of improvement remains slow.

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Wall Street was headed for a lower open on Monday as investors weighed renewed geopolitical tensions, movements in the Treasury market, and a busy week of inflation data and major technology earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 47 points higher. The S&P 500 fell 0.28%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.55%. 

The weaker start followed a volatile week in which rising government bond yields pressured technology stocks and contributed to losses across the major US indexes.

Treasury yields ease, but concerns remain

Treasury yields moved lower on Monday after reports that the US Treasury could use its General Account to help fund bond buyback operations.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell around 4 basis points to 4.7%, while the 30-year yield declined to about 5.23%. 

The longer-dated yield had topped 5.3% last week, reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades.

Investors have also been watching the impact of the US-Iran conflict on oil prices and inflation. 

Higher energy costs have raised concerns that inflationary pressures could persist, complicating the outlook for interest rates.

Nvidia earnings put AI trade in focus

The technology sector remained under pressure ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly results, which are expected later this week.

Nvidia’s earnings will be closely watched for signs of whether AI-related spending remains strong enough to support the rally in semiconductor and technology stocks. 

Concerns over high valuations have increased after recent weakness across the sector.

Bloomberg News reported over the weekend that Nvidia had notified customers that servers containing its Vera Rubin and Blackwell chips could face price increases of more than 15%.

Several semiconductor stocks moved lower in trading. Micron fell more than 5%, while Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom also declined. 

The iShares Semiconductor ETF dropped 2.6%.

Other technology and AI infrastructure companies also came under pressure, including Coherent, Lumentum, SanDisk, Corning and Seagate Technology.

AI earnings will remain in focus throughout the week, with Nvidia scheduled to report on Wednesday and Marvell Technology expected to release results on Thursday.

Inflation and Iran tensions add to market uncertainty

Geopolitical developments also remained a key concern after the US said it could impose economic sanctions targeting Iran’s trading partners.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described the planned measures as an “economic D-Day,” with investors monitoring whether additional sanctions could further disrupt energy markets.

Oil prices have already risen on concerns that the conflict could continue to restrict supply and keep inflation elevated.

Markets will also receive the July Personal Consumption Expenditures price index on Wednesday. 

The report is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and could influence expectations for interest rates later this year.

Traders have fully priced in one 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of 2026, although softer inflation data earlier this month reduced expectations for an immediate move.

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India is turning to sugar imports for the first time in nearly a decade as a sharp rise in domestic prices raises concerns about supplies ahead of the country’s crucial festive season.

The government will allow duty-free imports of 1 million metric tons of raw sugar between now and Oct. 31, according to a Commerce Ministry notice issued Thursday.

India normally imposes a 100% duty on sugar imports, making the decision a significant intervention in the domestic market.

The move comes after sugar prices rose sharply in recent weeks.

Retail prices in major Indian cities have climbed by almost Rs 20 per kg over a fortnight, reaching an average of around Rs 70 per kg, according to the information provided.

Prices have risen by nearly 40% over two months.

The timing is particularly sensitive because sugar consumption typically rises during India’s festive period as households and businesses increase purchases of traditional sweets and other confectionery products.

The government has also imposed stockholding limits on bulk consumers from Sept. 1 to Nov. 30.

The permitted stock has been reduced to 15 days, a move designed to discourage hoarding and prevent further tightening of supplies.

The combination of imports and stock restrictions suggests that policymakers are seeking to contain prices before higher demand during the festive season puts additional pressure on the market.

‘India does not have a sugar shortage,’ says Indian mills body

Despite the sharp increase in prices, Indian mills have sought to play down concerns about a fundamental shortage.

Niraj Shirgaokar, president of the Indian Sugar Mills Association, said the country’s overall supply position remains comfortable.

“I want to begin by putting one message on the table very clearly, right at the onset, as it will frame everything I say after this- India does not have a sugar shortage. Our production and stock position remains fundamentally comfortable,” he said.

“What we are addressing today is the short term issue of market sentiment ahead of the festive season and a set of calibrated temporary measures designed to manage that sentiment. It’s not a structural supply problem,” he said.

Shirgaokar estimated net sugar production for 2025-26 at around 279 lakh tons, with closing stocks projected at roughly 35 lakh tons.

He described that as a healthy buffer against normal domestic consumption after accounting for sugar diverted toward ethanol.

He said retail prices had risen from around Rs 48 per kg in July to roughly Rs 55-56 per kg in August, an increase of about 16%, although the figures vary across markets.

The government’s decision to permit imports nonetheless reflects the pressure being felt in the physical market.

Why sugar prices are rising

Lower domestic production is one of the main factors behind the increase.

Shirgaokar said the initial production estimate had been revised to around 309 lakh tons, mainly because of weather-related effects, lower cane yields and reduced sugar recovery.

Maharashtra, India’s largest sugar-producing state, has experienced higher crush rates, while red rot and varietal problems have affected sugarcane in Uttar Pradesh.

At the same time, demand is rising as traders and consumers prepare for the festive season.

But Shirgaokar said the most important factor behind the recent price jump has been speculative buying rather than an actual shortage.

“But the largest contributor has been speculative behavior. This has been happening for the last few weeks, and due to this, what’s happening is that some of the bulk buyers, who would normally procure just in time, have begun stocking, and due to the stocking, which is happening for a month and a half or two in advance, that behavior has pulled sugar out of circulation, and it stays in the go-downs, creating an artificial tightness, which has nothing to do with actual availability…”

That dynamic can amplify price increases even when aggregate supplies remain adequate.

Businesses that would normally purchase sugar closer to the time of consumption are instead building inventories earlier, reducing the quantity circulating in the spot market and creating the appearance of tighter availability.

Imports may take time to ease prices

The government’s import decision could help relieve that pressure, although the timing of the additional supply will depend on how quickly refiners can source and process raw sugar.

India has several port-based sugar refineries that import raw sugar duty-free for refining and export the resulting white sugar.

Under the latest order, those refiners can apply for the 1 million-ton import quota and sell refined sugar made from raw sugar already imported into the domestic market through the end of October.

A Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm estimated that the move could quickly add around 300,000 tons to the domestic market, Reuters reported.

However, another New Delhi-based dealer told Reuters India was likely to source much of the raw sugar from Brazil, with shipments taking close to two months.

That would mean the bulk of the impact on domestic availability may only become visible from October.

Sugar mills and refiners with the capacity to convert raw sugar into white sugar must apply for the tariff-rate quota between Aug. 21 and Aug. 28.

Preference will be given to importers that commit to completing imports by Oct. 15.

The import announcement has already affected international prices, with New York sugar reaching a 15-month high and London sugar touching a 17-month high on Thursday, as traders assessed the prospect of stronger Indian demand.

For India, however, the additional supply could put a ceiling on the domestic rally.

“While international prices rose in reaction to news of increased Indian buying, for India the import decision should cap the domestic rally,” Ashok Jain, president of the Bombay Sugar Merchants Association, said.

Sugar stocks benefit from higher prices

The price surge sparked a rally in Indian sugar stocks on Monday as investors assess the implications of firm domestic prices and tighter near-term supplies.

Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar jumped more than 11%, while Shree Renuka Sugars gained 8.5%.

Dwarikesh Sugar Industries rose 10%, while Dhampur Sugar Mills added 5.2% and Avadh Sugar & Energy climbed 4.5%.

Dalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries and Triveni Engineering and Industries also advanced around 2.5% each.

The stock-market response highlights the tension facing the sector.

Higher sugar prices can improve realizations for mills and potentially support margins.

But government intervention, including imports and stock limits, could eventually restrict how much producers benefit from the rally.

The government’s priority is clearly consumer prices rather than maximizing sugar companies’ profitability.

Global sugar market adds to the pressure

India’s domestic situation is unfolding against a tightening global sugar market.

Several analysts have recently shifted their forecasts toward global deficits for the 2026-27 season.

Earlier this month, Covrig Analytics said it now expects a global deficit of 300,000 metric tons, compared with a 100,000-ton surplus forecast in June.

Green Pool Commodity Specialists on July 29 raised its projected deficit to 3.3 million tons from 1.76 million tons previously, while StoneX increased its forecast to 1.7 million tons from 550,000 tons.

Sugar trader Czarnikow also moved from an earlier projected surplus of 1.4 million tons to a deficit of 100,000 tons.

One factor behind the changing outlook is Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer.

Unica reported on Aug. 6 that sugar production in Brazil’s Center-South region fell 26.3% year over year in June to 3.903 million tons.

Brazil’s sugar industry is also facing changing incentives between sugar and ethanol production.

Higher crude oil prices can make ethanol more attractive, encouraging mills to divert more cane toward biofuel production rather than sugar.

Weather risks cloud the global outlook

Weather is another source of uncertainty for the sugar market.

In Europe, drought and hot weather are expected to push sugar production in the European Union and UK down to 14.98 million metric tons this year, according to data from S&P Global Energy cited by Barchart.

That would be the lowest production level in 11 years.

There are also concerns about the possible effects of an El Niño weather pattern on the world’s major sugar-producing regions.

Brazil, India and Thailand are the three largest sugar-producing regions globally, and changes in rainfall patterns could affect cane yields.

The US Climate Prediction Center said in July that the El Niño pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific was likely to become one of the strongest in more than 75 years.

A stronger El Niño could reduce rainfall in key growing regions, adding another layer of uncertainty to global sugar supplies.

“Concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are bullish for prices,” Barchart said.

India faces a delicate balancing act

For the Indian government, the immediate objective is to prevent a temporary supply squeeze from becoming a broader inflation problem.

The decision to allow 1 million tons of duty-free imports should increase availability, although the full impact may take several weeks to reach consumers.

The reduction in stockholding limits should also make it more difficult for large buyers to accumulate excessive inventories ahead of the festive season.

At the same time, policymakers will need to balance consumer interests against the economics of sugar mills, which have already faced production pressures from weather and lower cane yields.

The government also faces political pressure over its ethanol policy.

Opposition parties have argued that increased ethanol blending in petrol has diverted sugar toward fuel production and contributed to higher prices.

Industry representatives and experts, however, have rejected the idea that ethanol diversion is the primary cause of the latest surge.

The more immediate explanation appears to be a combination of lower-than-expected production, seasonal demand, international supply concerns and speculative stocking.

That distinction matters. If the problem is primarily a temporary tightening of market availability rather than a structural shortage, additional imports and the end of the festive buying cycle could eventually ease prices.

But if global production continues to disappoint and weather disrupts major growing regions, India’s reliance on imports could become more significant.

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Bitcoin BTC trades above $78,600 on Monday, rising approximately 2% over the previous 24 hours and extending last week’s 20% rally.

The weekly rally was Bitcoin’s strongest performance in more than two years and pushed the cryptocurrency to an intraday high near $79,460.

Improving liquidity expectations, stronger institutional demand, a more favorable regulatory outlook and widespread short covering supported the move.

Bitcoin is now approaching the psychological resistance at $80,000. Several economic and policy events this week could determine whether buyers can extend the rally or whether the market enters a consolidation phase.

Treasury purchases improve liquidity expectations

Bitcoin’s rally over the past few days came after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the Treasury would increase purchases of longer-dated government debt.

The announcement helped lower long-term bond yields and improved investors’ appetite for risk assets. It also raised expectations that financial conditions could become more supportive.

Meanwhile, US government debt passing $40 trillion renewed concerns about the country’s fiscal outlook.

These concerns revived interest in the so-called currency debasement trade, which favors scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold as potential stores of value.

The regulatory backdrop also improved after President Donald Trump renewed his push for clearer digital asset rules.

Greater regulatory clarity could reduce the perceived risk of investing in cryptocurrencies and make it easier for traditional financial institutions to increase their exposure.

Institutional demand was evident in exchange-traded fund flows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.92 billion in net inflows last week, their strongest weekly total since early October.

The combination of ETF demand and short covering amplified Bitcoin’s upward move as traders betting on lower prices were forced to close their positions.

Core PCE inflation could shape Bitcoin’s next move

US core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data, scheduled for Wednesday, represents one of Bitcoin’s main macroeconomic tests this week.

Core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. Economists expect its annual rate to remain at 3.3%.

Markets currently assign a 65% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September.

A cooler-than-expected inflation reading could lower bond yields and weaken the US dollar, creating a supportive environment for Bitcoin.

A stronger inflation report could produce the opposite reaction by encouraging expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer.

In addition to that, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday could become the week’s most significant market catalyst.

Warsh has provided limited guidance on monetary policy since taking office in May, leaving investors uncertain about the Fed’s next move.

Even a modest change in his language on inflation, interest rates, or economic growth could affect Treasury yields, the dollar, and risk assets.

A cautious policy message could sustain expectations of easier liquidity conditions and help Bitcoin challenge $80,000.

A hawkish message could drive yields and the dollar higher, putting pressure on the cryptocurrency’s recent gains.

Bitcoin consolidates below $80,000

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish and efficient after Bitcoin broke above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average and a falling trendline before clearing the 200-day EMA.

Last week’s rally saw Bitcoin hit $79,460 before the price eased back and began consolidating above $77,000.

The Relative Strength Index remains in overbought territory, showing that bullish momentum is strong but stretched.

The elevated reading could keep Bitcoin in consolidation or trigger a mild pullback before buyers make another attempt at $80,000.

The psychological $80,000 level is Bitcoin’s immediate upside target. A clear break above that barrier would place the previous high near $82,800 in focus.

Clearing $82,800 would confirm a stronger technical breakout and could open the path toward $90,000.

Continued ETF inflows, softer inflation data, and a restrained message from the Federal Reserve would support this bullish scenario.

If Bitcoin extends its pullback, initial support sits near $73,400, corresponding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

The 200-day EMA near $71,600 provides the next major technical support, followed by the psychological $70,000 level.

A more pronounced correction could expose the $67,000 region, where the 50-day EMA, July high, and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement converge.

A decisive break below $67,000 would weaken the bullish structure and shift attention toward the mid-August low near $63,000.

For now, Bitcoin’s short-term bias remains positive while the price holds above $71,600, but overbought conditions leave the rally vulnerable to profit-taking.

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