US stocks were mixed on Friday after a weaker-than-expected July jobs report sharply reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September.

The Dow Jones index fell about 0.11% or 60 points, while the S&P 500 gained 0.37%.

The Nasdaq Composite led the advance, climbing more than 1.06% as semiconductor and software stocks rallied following upbeat corporate earnings and guidance.

The gains came after Wall Street ended Thursday’s session lower, when higher oil prices and corporate earnings weighed on sentiment.

Weak payrolls reshape Fed expectations

The Labor Department reported that the US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, compared with economists’ expectations for job growth of about 80,000.

The unemployment rate eased to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, while annual average hourly earnings increased 3.2%, below expectations of 3.5%.

The weaker labor market data prompted traders to sharply reduce expectations for a September rate hike.

Money market pricing showed the probability of a rate increase falling to around 20%, down from roughly 55% before the employment report.

Futures markets also increasingly reflected expectations that the Federal Reserve would leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its next policy meeting.

The employment figures arrive at a time when investors are paying close attention to economic data under Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, whose limited forward guidance has made incoming macroeconomic indicators increasingly important for monetary policy expectations.

The major US indexes were also on track for solid weekly gains.

If Friday’s advances hold, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average would record their strongest weekly performance since April, while the Nasdaq would post its best week since May after rebounding from a recent pullback.

AI-linked technology stocks lead market gains

Technology shares outperformed in trading following another round of earnings reports.

Atlassian surged more than 36% after forecasting quarterly revenue above Wall Street expectations.

Microchip Technology also climbed over 11% after issuing stronger-than-expected revenue guidance, helping lift the broader semiconductor sector.

Micron Technology fell 0.2%, while Marvell Technology advanced 3.44%.

Software stocks also traded higher, with ServiceNow rising 5.3%.

Cloudflare jumped more than 11% after raising its full-year revenue forecast above analyst estimates, highlighting continued demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Elsewhere, Airbnb gained around 14% after reporting second-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations.

Not all earnings reactions were positive.

Trade Desk tumbled nearly 25% after forecasting third-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates.

Trade measures and Middle East remain in focus

The White House announced new measures aimed at supporting domestic production by imposing price floors and a 15% tariff on products made from polysilicon, a key material used in semiconductors and solar panels that is primarily produced in China.

The move boosted solar stocks, with First Solar rising about 9% and SolarEdge gaining more than 5% in trading.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continued to attract attention after reports that Iran was reviewing legislation that could restrict US, Israeli and other vessels deemed hostile from transiting the Strait of Hormuz while imposing substantial penalties for violations.

Separately, Iran-backed Houthi forces launched attacks on Saudi Arabia, keeping investors alert to potential disruptions in global energy markets.

Oil prices eased modestly on Friday after surging in the previous session, with Brent crude slipping below $82 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate trading below $77 per barrel as markets continued to assess the evolving geopolitical situation.

The post Dow slips as Nasdaq jumps after weak jobs data cools Fed rate hike bets appeared first on Invezz

Nebius Group stock has lost momentum and is now in a deep bear market after falling by over 37% from the year-to-date high. NBIS dropped to $189, with analysts and investors now focusing on the upcoming earnings, which will come out on Wednesday next week.

Nebius Group stock has plunged amid AI concerns

Nebius Group is a top neocloud company that runs large data centers, offering services to companies like Meta Platforms, Revolut, and Microsoft. 

The company’s stock has come under pressure in the past few weeks as investors remain concerned about several risks. 

For example, there is a risk that the business is being highly competitive. SpaceX has already received large orders from Reflection AI, Anthropic, and Google.

Most importantly, Meta Platforms, its top client, is also slowly entering the industry. Media reports suggest that it is considering selling its extra space to other companies, a move that will make it billions of dollars over time.

More competition is coming from Bitcoin mining companies like Riot Platforms, Mara Holdings, TeraWulf, and Hive Digital. While the data center spending is expected to grow, the rising competition may have an impact on companies like Nebius and CoreWeave.

Additionally, there is a risk that Nebius’ planned spending will be higher than expected because of the rising memory, server, and GPU costs. This, in turn, may push Nebius to borrow more and even sell shares to finance its operations.

Options market predicts volatility after earnings

Nebius Group will publish its financial results next week, and analysts expect them to show that its growth accelerated last quarter. The average estimate is that its revenue jumped by 446% in the quarter to $574 million. This growth makes it one of the fastest growing companies in the industry.

More data shows that analysts expect the annual revenue this year to jump by a whopping 538% to $3.38 billion. It will then make over $11.46 billion next year as it fulfils its data center obligations. 

Most notably, the company is expected to generate a negative free cash flow as it continues its spending. In the last quarter, the company made a negative cash flow of over $3.3 billion. 

The options market points to more volatility next week. Options expiring next week are shows that the implied volatility at 157%, higher than the historical average of 150%. It has a put/call ratio of 1.47, a sign that it has more puts than calls, which is a bearish sign.

Similarly, those expiring on August 21 have a put/call ratio of 2.64, meaning that traders  are buying extended-dated protection beyond the earnings event itself, not just hedging the immediate announcement. 

Nebius stock price technical analysis

Nebius stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the NBIS stock peaked at $299.96 and then started a substantial pullback to a low of $145.9, slightly below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of $157. Its lowest level also coincided with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

There are signs that the stock has formed a small triple-top pattern, a popular bearish reversal sign. Therefore, the stock will likely be highly volatile after publishing its financial results. The options market is estimating a move over 10%. As such, with puts being more than calls, this means that it may drop to between $155 and $160.

The post Nebius stock tumbles before earnings: What the options market predicts appeared first on Invezz

SpaceX stock (SPCX) climbed on Friday, putting the stock on track to snap a four-week losing streak after stronger-than-expected quarterly results prompted analysts to raise revenue forecasts.

Shares of Elon Musk’s rocket and AI company rose about 11% to $126.82 in early trading.

Despite the week’s rebound, SpaceX shares remain well below their post-listing highs.

The broader market also advanced after weaker-than-expected US employment data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could leave interest rates unchanged.

The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 67 points, or 0.1%.

The major indexes were also headed for a second consecutive weekly gain.

The S&P 500 was up more than 3% for the week, while the Nasdaq was on pace for its strongest weekly performance since April, supported by a rebound in semiconductor stocks.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF had gained more than 7% during the week.

Earnings beat boosts sentiment

Friday’s advance left SpaceX shares up roughly 15% for the week after the company reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter results.

SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $3.5 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $6.8 billion in revenue and $2.1 billion in EBITDA.

Following the earnings release, analysts raised their long-term forecasts.

According to FactSet, consensus estimates for 2027 revenue have increased to about $102 billion from roughly $72 billion at the end of July.

The earnings report also prompted several analysts to revise their outlooks for the company.

Bernstein SocGen Group raised its price target on SpaceX to $248 from $239 while maintaining an Outperform rating.

The firm said the higher target reflected increased revenue assumptions and improved pricing expectations for the company’s AI computing business following the second-quarter results.

Bernstein noted that SpaceX had accelerated its target to reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, one year earlier than previously projected.

According to the firm, the revised outlook is driven primarily by stronger pricing for compute services and a more aggressive terrestrial AI expansion rather than higher launch activity for planned orbital data centres.

The firm also said SpaceX has finalized the design of its orbital data centres and intends to monetize terrestrial AI capacity at between $30 and $50 per watt.

Lock-up expiration expands trading float

Thursday marked the first major expiration of SpaceX’s post-IPO lock-up restrictions, allowing rank-and-file employees and some early investors to sell up to 911.5 million shares.

The newly eligible shares more than doubled the company’s public float, adding to the roughly 639 million shares previously available for public trading.

Additional lock-up restrictions are scheduled to expire over the coming months, increasing the proportion of potentially tradable shares to about 40% of the company by December 8.

The remaining 60%, including Musk’s stake, will remain locked until mid-2027.

The lock-up expiration comes after a sharp post-earnings decline, when investors reacted to elevated AI spending and continuing operating losses.

Although SpaceX has underperformed the broader technology sector since its June listing, analysts continue to maintain a constructive long-term outlook as the company expands its AI computing and satellite businesses.

The post Why SpaceX stock is rocketing around 11% on Friday appeared first on Invezz

Micron Technology MU shares fell more than 1.8% on Friday as investors weighed fresh investment plans from South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix alongside a more cautious outlook for memory pricing from Citi.

The memory-chip maker has declined about 9% over the past month, although the stock remains up more than 660% over the past 12 months.

Investor attention remains focused on when memory chip supply will catch up with surging demand driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure.

On Friday, SK Hynix said its board approved 54.3 trillion won ($38.15 billion) in investments for new chip fabrication facilities in South Korea.

The announcement follows even larger investment commitments made earlier this year.

In June, SK Hynix and Samsung said they would spend a combined 800 trillion won ($518.58 billion) to build new semiconductor manufacturing hubs in southwest Korea.

However, additional supply is not expected to arrive immediately.

Large semiconductor fabrication plants typically require years to construct.

Micron’s own $100 billion manufacturing project in New York, announced in 2022, is not expected to begin production until 2030, while no major new memory manufacturing capacity is expected to come online until roughly next year, with additional capacity planned for 2028.

Citi cuts price target as memory pricing outlook softens

Citi lowered its price target on Micron to $1,150 from $1,400 while maintaining its Buy rating, reflecting a more moderate outlook for DRAM and NAND pricing over the coming quarters.

The bank reduced its valuation multiple to 8 times revised calendar-year 2027 earnings estimates from 10 times previously.

“We trim MU TP to $1,150 from $1,400 based on 8x P/E vs prior 10x times revised C27 EPS to reflect lower market multiples on mixed memory peer results,” the Citi analyst wrote.

The revision followed meetings with memory supply chain participants and third-party experts during the “Future of Memory and Storage” conference.

“We see both DRAM and NAND prices decelerating Q/Q in the next four quarters with prices peaking in 2Q of next year,” the analyst said.

Citi now expects DRAM prices to decline 3% in the second half of 2027 compared with its previous expectation for flat pricing.

NAND prices are projected to fall 5% during the same period. The firm also reduced its fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates by 1% and 2%, respectively.

The bank also expects Micron’s profitability to moderate as pricing eases.

“We expect Micron’s gross margins to decline from current mid-80s and sustain in mid-70s next year as prices decline from a high base with ~40% DRAM bits under LTA pricing contracts,” the analyst wrote.

China expansion remains a longer-term concern

Beyond near-term pricing, Citi identified expanding Chinese memory production as its biggest structural concern.

“China competition and capacity additions in both NAND and DRAM markets is the biggest risk to our thesis,” the analysts said.

According to Citi, China’s leading NAND producer YMTC plans to increase capacity by adding 50,000 to 60,000 wafer starts next year to its existing 200,000-unit capacity and aims to become the world’s largest NAND manufacturer by 2030.

DRAM producer CXMT also plans to expand production from roughly 350,000 wafers to around 400,000 next year, with a longer-term target of approximately 600,000 wafers by 2030, although Citi noted that yields remain low.

While US export restrictions limit Chinese-made memory sales into the United States, Citi warned that competition could still affect Micron internationally.

“While US government is unlikely to allow made in China memory sales to US, sales to data centers in other regions like Europe could indirectly impact Micron,” analysts wrote.

The post Why is Micron stock falling today? appeared first on Invezz