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The Japanese yen softened against the US dollar, even after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) flagged rising risks of faster interest rate hikes in the last meeting. The USD/JPY pair rose to 158.23, up by nearly 2% from its lowest level this month.
There are signs that the BoJ is considering faster interest rate hikes to fill the gap with the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate.
Minutes of the last meetings showed that officials were comfortable with higher rates for longer as inflation remained at an elevated level. The minutes said:
“Given that underlying CPI inflation has been approaching 2 percent and greater consideration should be given to upside risks to prices than before, it could be considered that the pace of policy interest rate hikes will be faster than market expectations.”
The BoJ left interest rates unchanged at 1% in the last meeting, its highest level since September 1995. It made the last 25 basis point hike in June, and now Polymarket traders believe that it will hike again later this year.
The most recent data showed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 1.7% in June, the highest reading since December last year. This surge was driven by electricity and gas prices as government subsidies were scaled back.
Energy prices have jumped in Japan this year because of the ongoing US-Iran war that pushed Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices to nearly $120 at the peak. Crude oil pricesdrifted higher on Monday as Iran announced tougher rules for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. It is seeking reparations, release of frozen assets, and the lifting of the naval blockade.
The USD/JPY pair has risen recently as investors bought the dip after the recent interventions by the US and Japan. The BoJ has spent over $50 billion this month, while the US has swapped euros worth billions of dollars to Japanese yen.
This happened as the US is concerned that Japan will be forced to dump some of its US treasuries to boost the yen, a notable thing since Japan holds over $1.1 trillion in bonds, and the 30-year yields have remained above 5% for over a month.
It is common for a forex pair to bounce back after experiencing such a big drop that the USD/JPY had earlier this month.
The pair will next react to the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) report that comes out on Wednesday. Economists expect the data to show that inflation slowed modestly in July as gas prices fell a bit.
This report comes a few days after the US released the weak nonfarm payrolls(NFP) data, which showed that the economy lost 23k jobs last month.
USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the USD to JPY pair plunged from a high of 163.96 to a low of 155.20. It has now plunged below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that bears are in control for now.
At the same time, the two lines of the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have moved below the zero line and moved to the lowest level in months. The pair is also forming a bearish flag pattern, a common bearish continuation sign.
Therefore, the pair’s outlook is mixed for now. One aspect is where it resumes the downtrend as sellers attempts to retest this month’s low of 155.20. On the flip side, it may bounce back to the psychological level of 160.
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Crude oil prices rose on Hyperliquid as Iran issued a list of demands for reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI perpetual futures jumped to $77.67, while Brent, the global benchmark, soared to $83. This rebound may continue in the new week as tensions between the US and Iran remains.
The US-Iran war paused last week as Iran and Oman continued deliberating on the future of the Strait of Hormuz. This happened after the US halted its planned attacks against Iran amid heightened pressure from US Gulf allies like Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
While the US was not directly involved in the talks, its officials were receiving briefs from the negotiators. The US would have removed the blockade against Iranian ports if Iran and Oman reached an agreement.
Now, however, there are concerns on whether the Strait will be reopened any time soon after Iran issued a list of demands. Iran is demanding the US to remove its blockade and all sanctions it has put in place against the country.
At the same time, Iran is demanding for Trump to release all frozen assets and end attacks against its regional allies.
Iran believes that it is in a strong position in all this because of the recent reporting on the US weapons shortages. Media reports suggests that the US has depleted most of its interceptors and ammunitions.
General Dan Caine has also warned the White House about the risks of prolonging the war. In a recent testimony to Congress, he highlighted the difficulties of winning a war from the air. Other experts, including Professor John Mearsheimer and Robert Pape have continually warned about the the risks of escalating the war.
READ MORE: Oil falls below $80 on shipping hopes, but route to normal supply stays dangerous
The other risk facing crude oil prices is the ongoing crisis in Yemen, which is on the verge of a civil war. Ansar Allah, popularly known as Houthis, have continued to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is affecting oil shipments from Saudi Arabia.
From the demand side, there are signs that Beijing has started making large purchases as its strategic petroleum reserves fall. The country bought an average of over 8.4 million million barrels per day in July, much higher than in the previous month.
Oil prices chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that crude oil prices dropped sharply in the final week of last month. It moved from a high of $101.98 on July 23 to a low of $78.29 on August 5.
This retreat happened after Trump made another TACOon his threats against Iran. It now remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that bears remain in control for now.
However, this performance happened amid hopes that Iran and Oman would reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As such, there is a likelihood that prices will bounce back soon, potentially as bulls attempt to fill the fair value gap formed on July 24 this year. If this happens, it may hit $95. On the other hand, a drop below the support of $78.30 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
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The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has slumped into a correction as its outflows rose and as long-term US bond yields rose. It is also under pressure as the US public debt nears the $40 trillion milestone. It was trading at $82.7 on Friday, down by 10% from its highest point last year.
The TLT ETF is a top fund that invests in long-term US bonds. These bonds have come under intense pressure in the past few months as US deficit has jumped.
Data shows that the 30-year bond yield remains at 5.20%, a few points below the year-to-date high of 5.28%. It has jumped substantially from the year-to-date low of 4.60%.
The bond yield will be in the spotlight in the coming weeks as the US public debt continues rising and is now nearing the $40 trillion mark. Estimates are that this debt will cross this milestone in the next two weeks.
US government spending is getting out of hand during President Donald Trump’s era. For example, the US-Iran war that was started a few months ago, has consumed over $40 billion so far. The Trump administration is requesting Congress for over $90 billion in funding for the war.
At the same time, the administration is requesting a defense spending of over $1.5 trillion, a big increase from the previous year’s $1 trillion. This defense spending is more than what most countries spend in a year, combined.
Trump is also spending on unnecessary projects, including the new battleground ships. Media reports suggests that these ships will cost over $275 billion.
The rising bond yields is having an impact on the US government priorities. For example, the Trump administration decided to intervene in saving the Japanese yenrecently. The administration fears that Japan will continue selling its US treasury holdings, lifting the borrowing costs.
These fears explain why investors have started dumping their TLT holdings. Data shows that the fund had over $282 million in outflows on Friday. Before that, its outflows stood at $438 million and $230 million, respectively. In total, these funds have shed over $4.4 billion in assets this year.
US bond yields are also rising as Trump restarts his attempts to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve, a move that the Supreme Court halted. Dan Scavino, a Trump administration official, sent Cook a letter, saying that the administration intended to remove her from the Fed. She now has 21 days to provide a written response to the administration’s concerns.
In contrast, ETFs tracking short-term government bonds are adding substantial sums of money. The State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has added over $4.10 billion in assets this year.
TLT ETF chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the TLT ETF has been in a downward trend in the past few months. As a result, it formed a descending channel and is along its lower side. It remains below all moving averages, a sign that bears remain in control. Therefore, the fund will likely continue falling, potentially to the psychological level of $80.
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The Japanese yen resumed its downward trend as investors reflected on the recent interventions by the United States and the Bank of Japan. After plunging to 155.20 earlier this week, the USD/JPY pair rebounded to 158.41 as traders bought the dip ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data.
The Japanese yen has been highly volatile recently, helped by the interventions by the US and the Bank of Japan. It is estimated that the US spent billions of dollars rescuing the currency, which drove the USD/JPY exchange rate from last year’s high of 163.96 to 155.20.
According to the FT, the Bank of Japan also spent over $50 billion in these interventions last week. This means that it has spent over $120 billion in these actions this year.
The US has an incentive to intervene since Japan is the biggest foreign holder of US debt. Data shows that the country holds over $1.14 trilion in US debt, much more than the $948 billion that the UK holds. China has continued reducing its holdings to the current $659 billion.
Trump’s fear is that the country will continue selling these holdings at a time when the US public debt has jumped to nearly $40 trillion. US public spending is soaring, while the five-year yield has remained above 5% this month.
History shows that forex interventions normally have a minor impact. A good example of this is when the US intervened in Argentina by purchasing up to $20 billion worth of pesos in December. The intervention boosted the peso, with the USD/ARS pair falling to 1.32 million. Today, the pair stands at 1.5 million.
In April, the USD/JPY pair plunged from 160.70 to a low of 155 within a few days. It then rebounded and reached a high of 163.96 in July this year.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will likely resume the uptrend, potentially to the important resistance level of 160.
The next important catalyst for the pair will be the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data that comes out on Friday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report expected on Wednesday.
Economists expect the data to reveal that the economy added over 88k jobs last month after creating 57k a month a month earlier. They expect the report to show that the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%.
These numbers will provide more information about the state of the economy. It will help traders predict what to expect from the Federal Reserve.
USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen sharply from its year-to-date high of 163.96 to a low of 155.20. On Monday, the pair formed a doji candlestick pattern, characterized by a small real body and long upper and lower shadows.
A doji reflects market indecision after a strong downtrend and is often viewed as an early bullish reversal signal, particularly when confirmed by a higher close in subsequent trading sessions.
Therefore, there are signs that the pair will continue rising in the near term, potentially to the key resistance at 160. A drop below this month’s low of 155.20 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
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