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The US dollar held near its strongest level of the week against most major currencies during early Asian trading on Wednesday after renewed US strikes on Iran reignited geopolitical tensions and pushed oil prices higher.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose to 101.18.
Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar strengthened after the country’s central bank raised interest rates and signaled that additional monetary tightening could follow.
The greenback gained 0.2% against the Japanese yen to trade at 162.46, extending its advance for a fourth consecutive session.
The move pushed the currency to its strongest level since July 2.
The New Zealand dollar rose 0.5% to a high of $0.5705 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, in line with economists’ expectations.
The central bank said “some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required” to keep inflation under control, signaling that additional policy tightening may be needed in the coming months.
The Australian dollar also moved higher, gaining 0.1% to $0.6938.
Demand for the US dollar strengthened after the United States launched a new wave of strikes against Iran on Tuesday.
The US also revoked a licence that had allowed Iran to sell oil after three tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.
The developments increased demand for the dollar, which is widely regarded as a global safe-haven currency during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
In a research report, DBS analysts said, “For now, the market is keeping to the playbook that Tehran and Washington are still in a high-stakes game to gain leverage during the temporary truce, and that Tuesday’s incident would not descend back into a full-scale war.”
Brent crude futures rose 2.5% to $76.03 per barrel during Asian trading on Wednesday, extending gains for a second consecutive session as markets continued to assess the implications of the latest developments involving Iran.
Higher oil prices reflected investor concerns over potential disruptions to energy supplies following the attacks and the renewed military action.
The Japanese yen moved closer to a fresh 40-year low after Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada, the lone dissenter to the central bank’s June interest rate increase, reiterated his cautious stance on further policy tightening.
His comments reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan could remain cautious about tightening monetary policy despite the yen’s prolonged weakness.
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Investor sentiment turned cautious on Wednesday as markets assessed the latest developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, while attention shifted to the upcoming release of the minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s June Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Market participants remained focused on geopolitical developments during the European session, with concerns over escalating tensions supporting higher crude oil prices and influencing broader market sentiment.
The US Dollar Index remained largely stable near the 101.00 mark after rising roughly 0.3% during Tuesday’s session.
Meanwhile, US stock index futures traded about 0.2% lower during the European morning, suggesting investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s June FOMC meeting minutes later in the day.
The minutes are expected to provide additional insight into policymakers’ assessment of economic conditions and the future direction of monetary policy.
The New Zealand dollar strengthened following the policy decision.
NZD/USD gained more than 0.5% on the day and traded above the 0.5700 level during the European session.
The euro remained relatively stable against the US dollar after Tuesday’s losses.
EUR/USD held above the 1.1400 level during Wednesday’s European trading session after declining about 0.3% a day earlier.
The British pound also traded with limited momentum.
GBP/USD had fallen more than 0.2% on Tuesday, ending a nine-day winning streak.
The pair attempted to stabilise early Wednesday while holding above the 1.3350 mark.
Elsewhere, USD/JPY continued to move within a narrow range.
The pair closed Tuesday’s session largely unchanged and extended its sideways trading pattern above the 162.00 level at the start of European trading on Wednesday.
The Indian rupee posted modest gains against the US dollar during Wednesday’s opening session.
The USD/INR pair eased towards the 95.00 level despite renewed geopolitical concerns following US strikes on Iran, which contributed to higher oil prices.
Crude oil prices surged on Tuesday after reports said Iran fired at three commercial vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
In response, the United States launched retaliatory strikes targeting Iranian air defence systems and drone launch sites.
Following a gain of nearly 5% on Tuesday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude continued its upward move on Wednesday.
The benchmark was last seen trading near $72.60 per barrel, up about 0.8% on the day.
The renewed rise in oil prices reflected growing concerns that escalating geopolitical tensions could disrupt energy supplies and increase market volatility.
Currency markets remained focused on both geopolitical developments and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes, with investors looking for fresh signals that could shape near-term market direction.
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Samsung Electronics delivered blockbuster quarterly earnings, but its sharp share-price decline may have offered investors a more important message than the results themselves: in a market driven by artificial intelligence, strong numbers are no longer enough.
The South Korean technology giant reported a near 20-fold increase in second-quarter operating profit and roughly doubled revenue from a year earlier, comfortably beating Wall Street expectations.
Yet the stock closed about 7% lower on Tuesday, triggering a broader selloff across global semiconductor stocks and raising fresh questions about whether the AI-driven rally is entering a more demanding phase.
With the US earnings season set to gather pace later this month, the market’s reaction to Samsung suggests investors are increasingly focused on companies not only beating expectations but also raising forecasts and convincing investors that the AI boom can continue delivering outsized returns.
Markets have entered what many analysts describe as a “beat and raise” environment, where simply exceeding analyst estimates is no longer sufficient to justify elevated valuations.
Samsung guided for second-quarter operating profit of 89.4 trillion won, a 19-fold increase from a year earlier.
While the earnings comfortably surpassed consensus estimates, investors appeared more inclined to lock in gains after the stock had surged 382% over the previous 12 months.
The stock is currently trading at 52.2 times earnings, up from 18.2 times at the end of 2025, according to CompaniesMarketCap data.
Investors use price-to-earnings multiples to assess a company’s valuation relative to the earnings it is expected to generate.
With the growth of online trading apps, tracking such metrics has become significantly easier and more accessible to market participants.
“Results were ‘only’ 6% ahead of estimates, and it seems to have brought in a bout of profit-taking,” Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid wrote in a research note on Tuesday.
The market’s response is increasingly being interpreted as evidence of growing fatigue toward AI-related stocks after a blistering rally fueled by heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and semiconductor demand.
Rather than celebrating another strong earnings report, investors appeared to question whether future growth can continue to justify lofty valuations.
Samsung’s results have heightened attention on the earnings reports due later this month from US technology leaders, particularly the hyperscalers within the Magnificent Seven and semiconductor companies that have led much of the market’s gains this year.
Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist Ben Snider estimates that Nvidia and Micron Technology alone will account for roughly 40% of the S&P 500’s projected earnings growth this quarter, while the broader AI infrastructure ecosystem is expected to contribute nearly two-thirds of the benchmark’s anticipated 22% earnings increase.
Those expectations are exceptionally demanding.
The projected growth rate represents the highest starting point for earnings forecasts in five years, following first-quarter earnings growth of 27% that exceeded Wall Street expectations by roughly 15 percentage points.
Whether companies can once again outperform those already ambitious forecasts has become one of the market’s biggest questions.
Several market strategists believe the risks heading into earnings season lie less in company fundamentals than in investor expectations.
“The big risk up ahead is that technology companies, especially the hyperscalers, won’t beat analysts’ overly optimistic earnings growth estimates for the quarter,” said Ed Yardeni, founder and president of Yardeni Research.
“That could cause a correction among technology stocks,” he added, noting that the “overall stock market might dodge a correction if investors rotate into sectors that have lagged and report better-than-expected earnings.”
Morningstar chief equity market strategist Michael Field also believes Samsung’s share-price reaction illustrates how quickly investor sentiment can spread across the sector.
“The (Samsung) results were in themselves fundamentally good but it seems then to have a knock-on effect at general markets that once people start being negative about Samsung, that negativity extends across markets,” Field said.
“This is the problem coming up to earnings season as well, that we’re likely to see a lot of volatility. The markets are something on a knife-edge going into earnings season.”
The recent weakness in semiconductor stocks has coincided with a broader shift in market leadership.
Healthcare, financial and industrial stocks have outperformed over the past month following the S&P 500’s peak in early June, while many technology sectors have struggled to maintain momentum.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which climbed above 53,000 for the first time on Monday, has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq over the past month with gains of nearly 4.5%.
Meanwhile, the PHLX Semiconductor Index has fallen more than 10% from its June 22 record high, with Micron, Intel, Marvell Technology and Advanced Micro Devices also coming under pressure.
For some strategists, Samsung’s earnings mark a turning point in how investors evaluate AI-related companies.
Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank, said the earnings could have been a “victory lap” for the AI trade but instead may represent a more cautious phase of the cycle.
“Strong earnings are no longer enough,” she said. “For AI-linked stocks, the market now wants strong earnings, strong guidance and clear evidence that pricing power can last.”
Chanana noted that Samsung’s results confirmed demand for AI memory remains robust, but investors are becoming more disciplined in assessing how long that demand can sustain current valuations.
“This is the stage where earnings can still rise, but valuation becomes harder to defend. The market wants proof that pricing power can last, AI capex fatigue will not bite, and capacity growth will stay disciplined,” she said.
That shift suggests the coming earnings season may determine not whether the AI boom continues, but whether investors remain willing to pay increasingly rich valuations for companies leading it.
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The British pound was on track to record its biggest weekly gain against the US dollar in 12 weeks on Friday.
The currency was supported by easing domestic political concerns and weaker-than-expected US labour market data, which weighed on the dollar.
Sterling rose 0.1% to $1.3357 during the session.
The move brought its weekly gain to 1.2%, marking its strongest weekly performance against the dollar since early April.
The dollar came under pressure after the latest US employment data showed that the economy added fewer jobs than expected last month.
The softer labour market figures reduced expectations that the US Federal Reserve would continue raising interest rates.
Earlier in the week, British financial markets showed signs of unease after Andy Burnham, the only Labour lawmaker to publicly express interest in replacing outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer, gained support for a potential leadership challenge.
Burnham had previously said that the country needed to get “beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets.”
His remarks raised concerns among some investors, who feared that he could move away from the government’s existing borrowing commitments.
However, market sentiment improved after Burnham reaffirmed his commitment to the country’s current fiscal rules.
Those rules include balancing day-to-day government spending through tax revenues and reducing debt as a share of economic output.
His reassurance helped ease investor concerns over fiscal discipline.
Against the euro, sterling edged lower to 85.73 pence.
The previous day, the British currency had touched 85.47 pence against the single currency, its strongest level in a year.
Despite easing hostilities in Iran and the gradual resumption of oil supplies from the Middle East, financial markets continue to assign a greater probability to a Bank of England interest rate hike than a rate cut later this year.
Attention also remained on comments made by Bank of England rate-setter Catherine Mann on Thursday.
Mann said that looser financial conditions since the Bank’s June policy meeting would be an important factor when policymakers meet again in July.
She also stated that she would be prepared to support a rate increase if higher inflation expectations following the US-Iran war reduce the likelihood of inflation returning to the Bank’s 2% target.
Money market futures currently imply around a 70% chance of a Bank of England rate hike by the end of the year.
Before the Middle East conflict, investors had expected the central bank to deliver two interest rate cuts during 2026.
Recent developments, however, have prompted markets to reassess that outlook in favour of tighter monetary policy.
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The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, edged higher during Asian trading hours on Monday.
The index traded around the 101.00 level after remaining largely unchanged in the previous session.
Market participants continued to assess the outlook for US monetary policy.
Expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes later this year helped support the Greenback, even as recent economic data painted a mixed picture.
The US Dollar remained resilient as traders continued to price in the possibility of additional interest rate increases before the end of the year.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, financial markets are currently pricing in a 77.3% probability of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes by year-end. That expectation has continued to provide support for the US currency.
At the same time, easing global inflation pressures have also shaped market sentiment.
The moderation in inflation has been supported by the return of normal oil shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing concerns over supply disruptions.
Investors are now looking ahead to a series of key US economic releases that could influence expectations for future monetary policy.
Despite the weaker payrolls report, OCBC strategists said the decline in the US unemployment rate continued to point towards a tight labour market.
According to the strategists, the lower unemployment rate should help keep expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening intact.
Their assessment suggested that markets may still have to consider the possibility of additional policy action from the US central bank despite softer employment growth.
The differing interpretations of the latest labour market data highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
The Japanese yen remained one of the most closely watched currencies in the market.
It traded at 161.57 per US dollar.
That was not far from the 1986 low of 162.84 reached last week.
Traders continued to monitor the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities. Concerns intensified after a sudden surge in buying briefly lifted the yen on Thursday.
Despite the market’s focus on possible official action, analysts questioned whether any intervention by Tokyo would provide lasting support to the Japanese currency.
The continued weakness of the yen kept investors cautious as they assessed the likelihood of further volatility in the foreign exchange market.
South Korean won strengthened slightly on the first day of its historic 24-hour onshore spot dollar-won trading.
The currency was trading at 1,534 per US dollar.
The development marked the beginning of round-the-clock onshore spot trading for the dollar-won market.
At the same time, broader currency movements continued to be driven by expectations surrounding US monetary policy and developments in Japan.
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Global markets began the week on a cautious note as investors awaited the return of normal trading conditions following the three-day weekend in the United States.
Market participants remained focused on a series of scheduled economic releases and speeches from major central bank officials later in the day.
The Bank of Canada is also set to release its Business Outlook Survey, providing investors with additional insights into business sentiment.
The US Dollar Index posted modest gains during European trading on Monday, hovering around the 101.00 mark.
The rebound followed a weak performance in the previous week, when the index declined by around 0.5%.
The earlier losses came after disappointing US labour market data for June weighed on the greenback.
Despite Monday’s recovery, investor sentiment remained cautious.
US stock index futures traded on a mixed note, reflecting uncertainty ahead of fresh economic data and policy commentary.
Crude oil prices moved higher at the start of the week following comments from Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaking at the World Peace Forum over the weekend, Iran’s ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, said Tehran is considering introducing new service fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
He also said countries that supported Iran during the recent conflict could receive “special” treatment.
Following the remarks, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose modestly.
The benchmark was last seen trading at around $69 per barrel.
The euro weakened slightly against the US dollar in early Monday trading but remained above the 1.1400 level.
Investors also monitored fresh economic data from Europe.
Germany reported that factory orders increased by 1.9% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations for a 1.2% rise.
Attention later in the session will shift to the release of the Eurozone’s Producer Price Index and Retail Sales data for May, both of which could provide further direction for the common currency.
The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen during Monday’s session.
USD/JPY gained around 0.5% on the day, trading slightly above the 162.00 level.
The move reflected renewed demand for the US dollar following its modest recovery in early European trading.
The British pound retreated against the US dollar after posting strong gains in the previous week.
GBP/USD traded below the 1.3341 mark, correcting lower after advancing by more than 1% during the previous week.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar traded slightly weaker against its US counterpart.
USD/CAD edged higher and remained above the 1.4200 level as investors looked ahead to the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey for fresh cues on the country’s economic outlook.
Overall, financial markets remained in a holding pattern as investors awaited key economic indicators and remarks from central bank officials that could shape expectations for the global economic and policy outlook in the coming sessions.
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The NZD/USD exchange rate pulled back a bit on Tuesday, reacting to more weak US macro data, and as traders refocused on the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision. It retreated to 0.5693 from last week’s high of 0.5725.
The New Zealand dollar, commonly known as the kiwi, retreated as traders waited for the upcoming RBNZ interest rate decision. Market participants expect that the Anna Breman-led bank will decide to hike interest rates by 0.25%.
The bank will do that to combat elevated inflation. Recent data showed that the headline CPI rose 3.1% in the first quarter, remaining above its target of 2.0%, as energy prices jumped.
Ideally, the rate hike should be bullish for the kiwi as it will make it more attractive to investors. However, it could also be bearish, especially if the bank signals that it will not hike again since crude oil and natural gas prices are falling during the US-Iran ceasefire.
This view likely explains why New Zealand’s bond yields are falling. The ten-year yield dropped to 4.45% from last week’s high of 4.485%. Similarly, the rate-sensitive two-year fell to 3.348%.
The RBNZ decision comes at a time when New Zealand’s economy is doing well. A recent report showed that the economy expanded by 1.5% YoY in the first quarter.
It was the third consecutive quarter of gains, with manufacturing serving as the largest contributor to growth. Goods-producing industries expanded by 0.4%, helping offset weakness in the construction sector, which contracted by 1.0%.
The NZD/USD pair will react to the upcoming FOMC minutes, which will provide more information on Kevin Warsh’s first meeting. In it, officials left interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%, with the dot plot showing that hawks were in ascendance. 9 members hinted that they would support tightening later this year.
Still, it is unclear whether the recent developments will change their outlooks. For example, jobs numbers released last week showed that the economy added 57k jobs last month, lower than the expected 114k. The BLS also revised the previous month’s jobs report lower from 172k to 129k.
Recent PMI numbers also came lower than expected. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global services PMI fell to 54 and 51.2, respectively. Last week’s manufacturing PMI figure also came short of expectations.
NZD/USD chart | Source: TradingView
Technicals suggest that the recent NZD/USD pair uptrend may be losing steam as the Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped from 38.4 on July 1 to 35 today. The pair has also remained below the 50-day moving average, and has formed a bearish flag pattern.
These technicals point to more downside in the near term. If this happens, it will drop to the key support level of 0.5621, its lowest level in June this year. A drop below that price will signal that bears have prevailed and push it lower, potentially to 0.5600. A clear bullish breakout will be confirmed if it moves above the 50-day moving average level.
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Markets remained cautious on Tuesday as investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East while awaiting fresh economic data from the United States.
With no major high-impact data releases scheduled for the early part of the day, market participants focused on geopolitical headlines and remarks from central bank officials.
Later in the session, attention is expected to shift to the release of the US Goods Trade Balance data for May, along with the Automatic Data Processing’s (ADP) Employment Change 4-week Average, both of which are featured on the day’s economic calendar.
The US Dollar (USD) began the week on a stronger footing, advancing against most major currencies during the first half of Monday’s session. However, improving investor risk appetite, reflected in gains on Wall Street, prevented the currency from extending its advance.
As a result, the US Dollar Index surrendered its earlier gains and finished Monday’s session broadly unchanged. During European trading on Tuesday morning, the index fluctuated around the 101.00 level as investors awaited fresh catalysts.
Geopolitical developments also remained a key driver of market sentiment.
Reports indicated that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked a commercial vessel sailing near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump told reporters that the United States would either reach a deal or “finish the job.”
Following limited movement during Monday’s session, crude oil prices edged higher early Tuesday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose more than 1% on the day, trading near $69.50 per barrel as investors assessed the latest geopolitical developments.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extended Monday’s losses against the US Dollar during early trade on Tuesday, with the USD/INR pair holding firm near 95.36.
The domestic currency remained under pressure after renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over global energy supplies.
The euro remained broadly stable against the US dollar, with EUR/USD trading in a narrow range below 1.1450 after ending Monday’s session virtually unchanged.
The British pound continued its recent recovery against the US dollar. GBP/USD extended Monday’s rebound and climbed to its highest level since mid-June, approaching 1.3400 during the Asian session on Tuesday.
The pair later eased modestly during European trading, slipping below 1.3380.
Investors are also awaiting the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report, scheduled for release later in the day.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY, which gained more than 0.4% on Monday to finish above 162.00, traded sideways on Tuesday morning.
The pair struggled to maintain its upward momentum and remained slightly below Monday’s closing level as markets awaited fresh economic and geopolitical developments.
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Palo Alto Networks stock continues its strong uptrend this week and is now hovering at its all-time high. PANW jumped by 156% from its lowest point this year, with analysts expecting more gains.
BNP Paribas predicts that PANW will jump from the current $357 to $380, while Wells Fargo sees it soaring to $420. Other analysts who are bullish on the company are from BTIG and Arete Research.
The general view among analysts is that Palo Alto Networks will continue doing well in the coming years because of the AI boom. The theory is that, as AI agents become more common, companies will need defensive measures.
All these points are valid. However, technicals suggest that the stock may experience a brief retreat in the coming weeks or months. For one, the stock has become extremely overbought, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) soaring to 80. Baring a minor retreat in June, it has remained in the overbought zone since May.
Notably, the RSI indicator has formed a double-top pattern with a neckline at 57. This pattern suggests that it will reverse in the near term.
At the same time, the current PANW stock has deviated substantially from its historical moving averages. The 50-day moving average is at $265, much lower than the stock’s price of $357.
As such, there is a risk that the stock will go through a situation known as mean reversion. This is a situation where an asset drops back to its historical moving averages as investors book profits.
Therefore, these technicals point to a short-term reversal, potentially to the psychological level of $300. Such a pullback will not be new for the stock. For example, after rising to $222.85 in October 25, the stock retreated by 37% to $139.1 in February and then bounced back.
PANW stock chart | Source: TradingView
Palo Alto Network’s business is expected to keep doing well in the coming years, especially now that it has acquired CyberArk. CyberArk gave it CORA AI, the central hub for identity security-focused AI capabilities.
Yahoo Finance data shows that the average view is that its revenue will jump by 24% this year to $11.4 billion. It is expected to rise by 20% in the next financial year to nearly $14 billion. Similarly, its earnings per share are expected to hit $3.77.
Based on Palo Alto’s history, chances are that it will do better than what analysts expect. It has beaten forecasts in the past 7 consecutive quarters.
Still, in addition to its risky technicals, PANW stock’s other risk is its valuation. SeekingAlpha data shows that it has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 92.25, higher than the sector median of 24. Its PE multiple is much higher than the five-year average of 57.
This valuation multiple suggests that the company is priced for perfection and that its next earnings report will be crucial. If the earnings and guidance are not all that strong, there is a risk that it may retreat as it did after the last earnings report when it fell to $250 from $305.
READ MORE: PANW stock dubbed ‘double table pounder’ despite muted outlook
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