West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil benchmarks rose slightly on Hyperliquid as tensions between the US and Iran escalated. WTI rose to $73, with its 24-hour volume and open interest rising to $113 million and $222 million, respectively. Brent rose to $78, with a trading volume of $63 million. 

Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, triggering US strikes

WTI and Brent benchmarks rose slightly as tensions between the US and Iran escalated. In a statement on Saturday, Iranian officials said that they had closed the Strait of Hormuz, blaming the US for violating the ceasefire agreement. In a statement in Turkey, Trump said that the ceasefire was “over.”

The US military, through CENTCOM, said that it had launched more strikes against Iranian targets overnight, with Iranian officials vowing to respond. In the last attacks, Iran launched retaliatory attacks on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Recent data shows that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has faded in the past few days. Tankers are afraid of being attacked, which would lead to losses worth millions of dollars. Also, insurers are afraid of offering services to ships crossing the Strait.

These developments are happening a day after Trump warned Iran against assassinating him. In a Truth Social post, Trump said that Iran would be destroyed if it did that. This statement came after the US received intelligence that Iran was considering ways to assassinate him. 

In a statement on Saturday, Iran’s Mojtaba Khamenei said that Iran would retaliate against the killing of his father and other Iranians, including the school girls in Minab. 

Therefore, there is a risk that the kinetic activity between the US and Iran will resume, affecting oil supplies at a time when inventories are still falling.

Russia and Ukraine war

Meanwhile, crude oil prices are reacting to the ongoing developments in Russia, where Ukraine has continued to attack oil and gas infrastructure in the country. It has already attacked some of the biggest Russian refineries, leading to shortages across the country. Ukraine has also attacked Russian oil tankers at sea.

Therefore, there is a risk that Russian oil supplies to the global market will be disrupted in the near future. All these events mean that the oil glut that some analysts were expecting will be delayed. 

Brent crude oil price technical analysis

Brent crude oil prices chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that Brent crude oil price bottomed at $70.20 earlier this month as investors reflected on the situation between the US and Iran. It then bounced back to $79.5 as the two sides restarted their strikes, and then pulled back to $75.22. 

Brent then rose to $78 on Hyperliquid on Sunday as the two sides launched strikes. It is attempting to rise above the key resistance level of $79.5, which it reached last week.

It remains slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Also, the Supertrend indicator is still red, a sign that bears remain in control.

Therefore, the price will likely be highly volatile depending on how the Iranian situation evolves. An escalation, which is happening, may push oil prices to $80 and above in the near term.

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The Kospi Index is stuck in a local bear market after falling 21% from its year-to-date high. It ended the week at 7,475, down sharply from the year-to-date high of 9,387. This article highlights some of the top catalysts for South Korean stocks this week.

Kospi Index to react to SK Hynix US IPO

The Kospi Index will react to last Friday’s SK Hynix US IPO that saw it raise over $26.5 billion. Its stock jumped by over 13% on its first day as brokers rushed to fill pre-orders. 

The IPO happened when South Korean stocks were closed, meaning that investors in the country will have a chance to respond to the listing. 

A key risk for SK Hynix is that most recently-launched IPOs normally jump initially and then retreat shortly after that. This happened with most IPOs, with SpaceX stock falling to a record low. Other companies like Circle, Figma, and Klarna have all plunged after the initial surge faded. 

The Kospi Index will be highly volatile in the new week as we have seen in the past few weeks. It has been normal for the index to jump and retreat by as much as 10% within a session, and this trend will likely continue this week.

South Korean Central Bank decision

The Kospi Index will react to the upcoming South Korean Central Bank interest rate decision, which will happen on Thursday this week. 

Top analysts expect that the central bank will hike interest rates by 0.25% to 3%. This hike will be because of its attempts to boost the South Korean won, which plunged to a record low against the US dollar recently. 

The rising optimism that the central bank will hike interest rates explains why the USD/KRW pair has plunged in the past few days. It has slumped from a high of 1,560 on June 5 to the current 1,500. Technically, the pair has formed a double-top pattern, pointing to more downside in the near term. 

South Korea’s central bank is concerned about inflation as semiconductor companies boost their bonuses to workers. Recent data showed that the country’s inflation jumped to the highest level in over 2 years. As such, the rate hike is expected to slow the economy down and put inflation in check. A more hawkish central bank may affect the performance of South Korean stocks and fuel volatility.

Key South Korean macro data

The Kospi Index will react to the upcoming macro data from South Korea. For example, the country will publish the latest import and export price index reports on Wednesday. 

It will also release the June import and export data on the same day. Economists expect the data to show that exports surged by 70.9% in June, while imports rose by 30%, leading to a trade surplus of over 36 billion KRW. These numbers will provide more information about the state of the South Korean economy.

US and Iran tensions

The Kospi Index will also react to the ongoing developments between the US and Iran. The two sides restarted their fighting during the weekend, with the US launching attacks against several Iranian targets. Trump has already declared the ceasefire to be over, and warned Iran of destruction if it killed him.

Crude oil priceshave already jumped on Hyperliquid, and the trend may continue this week, affecting the South Korean economy. The country imports most of its oil from the Middle East. 

Separately, the index will also react to key earnings from the biggest American banking groups, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.

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The S&P 500 Index continued rising and neared its all-time high on Friday as some big tech companies like Nvidia and AMD rebounded. It ended the week at 7,575, with its perpetual futures on Hyperliquid ticking downwards today. This article explains some of the top catalysts for the SPX Index and key ETFs like VOO and SPY.

S&P 500 Index to react to earnings season

The biggest catalyst for the SPX Index will be the upcoming earnings season, which kicks off on Tuesday when five of the biggest banks release their financial results. Five banks worth almost $2 trillion will release their numbers on that day. 

They include companies like JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. A day later, more big banks like Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York, and PNC will publish their earnings.

In addition to these banks, large companies like Netflix, UnitedHealth, General Electric Aerospace, Intuitive Surgical, and BlackRock will release their financial results this week. These results will provide more information on how companies performed during the US-Iran war. 

Wall Street analysts predict that the earnings season will be successful, with the average growth being 23.2%. In most cases, earnings are usually higher than what analysts expect. If this trend continues, there is a likelihood that earnings growth will be over 30%.

US consumer inflation data

The S&P 500 Index, VOO, and SPY ETFs will react to the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) data on Tuesday. Economists believe that consumer prices softened a bit last month as gasoline prices fell modestly. The average gasoline price has dropped to $3.8820 from last month’s $4.1290. 

While gasoline prices have dropped, service inflation has remained at an elevated in the past few months. For example, utility bills have risen recently because of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

The average estimate is that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped by 0.1% in June after rising by 0.5% in the previous month. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, is expected to come in at 0.3%. The US will publish the Producer Price Index (PPI) data a day after that.

These inflation numbers will help to determine the next phase of the Federal Reserve. A higher-than-expected inflation report would push the Federal Reserve to maintain a more hawkish tone later this year.

FOMC minutes released recently suggested that officials debated the pros and cons of hiking interest rates in the coming months. Some officials supported hiking rates later this year, while other supported cutting rates if inflation started moving downwards.

US-Iran tensions

The other key catalyst for the S&P 500 Index and its top ETFs like SPY and VOO will be the new developments from Iran. The US launched the third phase of strikes overnight, attacking key military targets. 

This happened after Iran announced that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, crude oil prices rose on Hyperliquid. Signs of an escalation between the two sides will lead to more volatility in the stock market. 

AI jitters to move US stocks

The US stock market will react to the new developments in the AI industry. Last Friday, stocks jumped after South Korea’s SK Hynix launched the biggest IPO of a foreign company in the United States after Alibaba. 

Another important AI news came over the weekend when Apple announced a major lawsuit against OpenAI, alleging that the latter stole its trade secrets in its hardware push. It is unclear how this lawsuit will affect the stock market this week, but some OpenAI-related stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom may move.

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